December 2021
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Misvaluation and Corporate Inventiveness
– Ming Dong, David Hirshleifer, Siew Hong Teoh
We test how market overvaluation affects corporate innovation. Estimated stock overvaluation is strongly associated with measures of innovative inventiveness (novelty, originality, and scope), as well as research and development (R&D) and innovative output (patent and citation counts). Misvaluation affects R&D more via a nonequity channel than via equity issuance. The sensitivity of innovative inventiveness to misvaluation increases with share turnover and overvaluation. The frequency of exceptionally high innovative inputs/outputs increases with overvaluation. This evidence suggests that market overvaluation may generate social value by increasing innovative output and encouraging firms to engage in moon shots.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Creditor Rights and Bank Loan Losses
– Amanda Rae Heitz, Ganapathi Narayanamoorthy
We develop hypotheses regarding the association between two types of creditor rights and bank loan losses. Contrary to prior research conclusions, bank lending risk is negatively associated with both restrictions on reorganization and the secured creditor being paid first. Using accounting disclosures, we develop novel empirical measures of the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) at the loan-portfolio level. Different types of creditor rights have differential effects pertaining to PD and LGD and exhibit significant intertemporal variation. We corroborate our cross-country findings using the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) shock to creditor rights.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Portfolio Choice: Familiarity, Hedging, and Industry Bias
– Xin Che, Andre P. Liebenberg, Andrew A. Lynch
Investors may under diversify their portfolios by overweighting securities in which they perceive an informational advantage or by under weighting securities to hedge risks outside the portfolio. We investigate under diversification in institutional portfolio construction by examining the under/overweighting of industries in U.S. property liability (PL) insurers equity portfolios. We find that PL insurers underweight both their own industry and highly correlated industries in their portfolios. This under weighting is larger for PL insurers exposed to higher underwriting risk. Although PL insurers have an informational advantage in investing in their peers, their underwriting risk drives them to underweight stocks in their industry.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Quoting Activity and the Cost of Capital
– Ioanid Rosu, Elvira Sojli, Wing Wah Tham
We study the quoting activity of market makers in relation to trading, liquidity, and expected returns. Empirically, we find larger quote-to-trade (QT) ratios in small, illiquid, or neglected firms, yet large QT ratios are associated with low expected returns. The last result is driven by quotes, not by trades. We propose a model of quoting activity consistent with these facts. In equilibrium, market makers monitor the market faster (and thus increase the QT ratio) in neglected, difficult-to-understand stocks. They also monitor faster when their clients are more precisely informed, which reduces mispricing and lowers expected returns.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Corporate Governance and Loan-Syndicate Structure
– Sreedhar T. Bharath, Sandeep Dahiya, Issam Hallak
Firms with greater shareholder rights have a greater risk-shifting incentive, requiring more lender monitoring. Thus, a reduction in shareholder rights implies more diffused (less monitoring-intensive) loan syndicates. Using the passage of U.S. second- generation anti-takeover laws as an exogenous shock that reduces shareholder rights as a natural experiment, we find that loan syndicates become significantly more diffuse after the passage of these laws. These results are confirmed in a large sample of bank loans made during the 1990 2007 period when the loan syndicate market matured. Our results show how corporate governance causally affects financial contracting and creditor control in firms.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The Predictive Power of the Dividend Risk Premium
– Davide E. Avino, Andrei Stancu, Chardin Wese Simen
We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about i) the expected dividend growth rate and ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns both in and out of sample. Economically, a market- timing investor who accounts for the time-varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02% per year.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Hometown Lending
– Ivan Lim, Duc Duy Nguyen
Banks open more branches and make more lending near their CEOs childhood hometowns. The effects are stronger among informationally opaque borrowers and among CEOs who spend more time in their childhood hometowns. Furthermore, loans originated near CEOs hometowns contain more soft information and have lower ex post default rates, implying that hometown loans are more informed. Hometown lending does not affect aggregate bank outcomes, suggesting that credit is being reallocated from regions located farther away to regions proximate to bank CEOs hometowns.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Algorithmic Trading and Market Quality: International Evidence
– Ekkehart Boehmer, Kingsley Fong, Juan (Julie) Wu
We study the effect of algorithmic trading (AT) on market quality between 2001 and 2011 in 42 equity markets around the world. We use an exchange co-location service that increases AT as an exogenous instrument to draw causal inferences about AT on market quality. On average, AT improves liquidity and informational efficiency but increases short-term volatility. Importantly, AT also lowers execution shortfalls for buy- side institutional investors. Our results are surprisingly consistent across markets and thus across a wide range of AT environments. We further document that the beneficial effect of AT is stronger in large stocks than in small stocks.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Safe-Asset Shortages: Evidence from the European Government Bond Lending Market
– Reena Aggarwal, Jennie Bai, Luc Laeven
We identify the unique role of the government bond lending market in collateral transformation during periods of market stress. Using a novel database, we provide evidence that safe assets in the lending market have higher demand, higher borrowing cost, and higher usage of noncash collateral relative to non safe assets during stressed market conditions. Moreover, we find that market participants are able to obtain safe assets using relatively low-quality noncash collateral, allowing for collateral transformation. We show that policy interventions by central banks can help reduce safe-asset shortages by returning sought-after safe assets to the market.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The Dark Side of Executive Compensation Duration: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions
– Zhi Li, Qiyuan Peng
We find that contrary to popular belief, CEOs with long compensation duration do not make better long-term investment decisions. Using a comprehensive pay duration measure, we find that acquisitions conducted by CEOs with long compensation duration receive more negative announcement returns, and experience significantly worse post- acquisition abnormal operating and stock performance, compared with deals conducted by CEOs with short compensation duration. The negative correlation between compensation duration and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) performance is driven by long-term time-vesting plans, not by performance-vesting plans. The results suggest that extending CEO pay horizons without implementing performance requirements is insufficient to improve managerial long-term investment decisions.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Does Securitization Weaken Screening Incentives?
– Dong Beom Choi, Jung-Eun Kim
We test whether lenders screening incentives weaken when faced with the possibility of loan sales. We adopt a new measure of lending standards, the processing time for mortgage applications at the loan level, and use the collapse of the non agency mortgage-backed securities issuance market as a natural experiment. Secondary market liquidity for nonconforming loans decreased significantly at the end of 2007, but the market for securitizing conforming loans did not experience the same breakdown. Following this event, lenders spent significantly more time screening applications for loans larger than the conforming loan limits than for those below the limits. The processing-time gap widened more for banks with lower capital, greater involvement in the originate-to-distribute model, and larger assets.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Where Does the Predictability from Sorting on Returns of Economically Linked Firms Come From?
– Aaron Burt, Christopher Hrdlicka
Cross-firm predictability among economically linked firms can arise when both firms exhibit their own momentum and their returns are contemporaneously correlated. We show that cross-firm predictability can last up to 10 years, which is hard to reconcile with an interpretation of slow information diffusion. However, it is consistent with the economically linked firms commonality in momentum. The contribution of each source can be found by decomposing leaders returns into the predictable (momentum) and news components. Sorting on each, we find that both sources contribute almost equally to 1-month predictability, whereas commonality in momentum is solely responsible for longer-horizon cross-firm predictability.
November 2021
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The Role of Corporate Culture in Bad Times: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
– Kai Li, Xing Liu, Feng Mai, Tengfei Zhang
After fitting a topic model to 40,927 COVID-19 related paragraphs in 3,581 earnings calls over the period Jan. 22 – Apr. 30, 2020, we obtain firm-level measures of exposure and response related to COVID-19 for 2,894 U.S. firms. We show that despite the large negative impact of COVID-19 on their operations, firms with a strong corporate culture outperform their peers without a strong culture. Moreover, these firms are more likely to support their community, embrace digital transformation, and develop new products than those peers. We conclude that corporate culture is an intangible asset designed to meet unforeseen contingencies as they arise.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Who Supplies PPP Loans (and Does It Matter)? Banks, Relationships, and the COVID Crisis
– Lei Li, Philip E. Strahan
We analyze the bank supply of credit under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The literature emphasizes relationships as a means to improve lender information, which helps banks manage credit risk. Despite imposing no risk, however, the PPP supply reflects traditional measures of relationship lending: decreasing in bank size and increasing in prior experience, commitment lending, and core deposits. Our results suggest a new benefit of bank relationships: They help firms access government- subsidized lending. Consistent with this benefit, we show that the bank PPP supply, based on the structure of the local banking sector, alleviates increases in unemployment.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Flattening the Illiquidity Curve: Retail Trading During the COVID-19 Lockdown
– Gideon Ozik, Ronnie Sadka, Siyi Shen
This article studies the impact of retail investors on stock liquidity during the COVID- 19 pandemic lockdown in spring 2020. Retail trading exhibits a sharp increase, especially among stocks with high COVID-19 related media coverage. Retail trading attenuated the rise in illiquidity by roughly 40% but less so for high-media-attention stocks. Causality is addressed using the staggered implementation of the stay-at-home advisory across U.S. states. The results highlight that ample free time and access to financial markets facilitated by fintech innovations to trading platforms are significant determinants of retail-investor stock market participation.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Shadow Banking in a Crisis: Evidence from Fintech During COVID-19
– Zhengyang Bao, Difang Huang
We analyze lending by traditional as well as fintech lenders during COVID-19. Comparing samples of fintech and bank loan records across the outbreak, we find that fintech companies are more likely to expand credit access to new and financially constrained borrowers after the start of the pandemic. However, this increased credit provision may not be sustainable; the delinquency rate of fintech loans triples after the outbreak, but there is no significant change in the delinquency of bank loans. Borrowers holding both loan types prioritize the payment of bank loans. These results shed light on the benefits provided by shadow banking in a crisis and hint at the potential fragility of such institutions when delinquency rates spike.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Natural Disaster Effects on Popular Sentiment Toward Finance
– Manish Jha, Hongyi Liu, Asaf Manela
We use a text-based measure of popular sentiment toward finance to study how finance sentiment responds to rare historical disasters and to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Finance sentiment declines after epidemics and earthquakes but rises following severe droughts, floods, and landslides. These heterogeneous effects suggest finance sentiment responds differently to the realization of insured versus uninsured risks. Finance sentiment declines at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but recovers in countries that experienced high stock markets returns and that responded with large fiscal spending. Finance sentiment seems to depend on the insurance provided by private markets and by public finance.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Small-Business Survival Capabilities and Fiscal Programs: Evidence from Oakland
– Robert P. Bartlett III, Adair Morse
Using City of Oakland data during COVID-19, we document that small-business components of survival capabilities (i.e., revenue resiliency, labor flexibility, and committed costs) vary by firm size. Non employer businesses rely on low-cost structures to survive. Micro businesses (15 employees) depend on 14% greater revenue resiliency. Enterprises (650 employees) use labor flexibility to survive but face 10% – 20% higher residual closure risk from committed costs. The evidence argues for size targeting of financial support programs, including committed costs and revenue-based lending programs. Supporting the capabilities mapping, we find that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) increased medium-run survival probability by 20.5% specifically for micro businesses.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Buying the Vote? The Economics of Electoral Politics and Small-Business Loans
– Ran Duchin, John Hackney
We study the relation between electoral politics and government small-business lending, employment, and business formation. We construct novel measures of electoral importance capturing swing and base voters using data from Facebook ad spending, independent political expenditures, the Cook Political Report, and campaign contributions. We find that businesses in electorally important states, districts, and sectors receive more loans following the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, controlling for funding demand and both health and economic conditions. Estimates from survey and observational data show that electoral politics and the allocation of government funds affect employment, small-business activity, and business applications.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Corporate Dividend Policy
– Georg Cejnek, Otto Randl, Josef Zechner
This article shows that, for major equity markets, the proportion of index values attributable to the first 5 years of dividends dropped substantially in the first quarter of 2020 and that this drop was not reversed by the end of the year. In the cross section, this breakdown of dividend smoothing due to COVID-19 was less severe for firms with higher operating cash flows and more positively co-skewed stock returns, and it was more pronounced for those with higher leverage and in the financial sector. Heavy dividend cutters also experienced a substantial increase in exposure to systematic risk.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The COVID-19 Crisis and the Allocation of Capital
– Ran Duchin, Jarrad Harford
We summarize and synthesize the results of the articles in this symposium issue on research in financial economics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the articles, taken together, present evidence that the pandemic resulted in a distributional shock to capital allocation. The underlying mechanisms include accelerating technological shifts, government stimulus programs, and heterogeneous responses of investors and firms. We augment these articles with evidence on the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on profitability, payout, investment, employment, and productivity across sectors.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Venture Capitalists and COVID-19
– Paul Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, Ilya A. Strebulaev
We survey over 1,000 venture capitalists (VCs) on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected their decisions and investments. Despite the historical importance of in-person meetings, VCs do not report difficulty finding quality entrepreneurs or major changes in time allocation. They do report difficulty in evaluating deals, more investor-friendly terms, and a decreased investment rate, with about one-sixth of VCs reporting pressure from limited partners to conserve capital. Although aggregate returns are largely unchanged, there is high dispersion both within and across funds. A follow-up survey shows faster-than-expected recovery in deal volume, terms, and returns.
September 2021
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Searching for Gambles: Gambling Sentiment and Stock Market Outcomes
– Yao Chen, Alok Kumar, Chendi Zhang
Using Internet search volume for lottery to capture gambling sentiment shifts, we show that when the overall gambling sentiment is strong, investor demand for lottery stocks increases, these stocks earn positive short-run abnormal returns, managers are more likely to split stocks to cater to the increased demand for low-priced lottery stocks, and initial public offerings (IPOs) earn higher first day returns. Further, the sentiment-return relation is stronger among low institutional ownership firms, headquartered in regions where gambling is more acceptable and local bias is stronger. These results suggest that gambling sentiment has a spillover effect on the stock market.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Income Fluctuations and Firm Choice
– Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh, Lorenz Kueng
How households shift spending across firms in response to income fluctuations is an important source of firm risk. Using transaction-level data, we study how households interact with the universe of retailers following income changes. We find that income increases within and across households result in substitution toward retailers in a category that are higher quality; smaller; more profitable; and have higher labor intensity, research and development (R&D) intensity, and equity betas. Although not all shifts are economically large, they do not average out across retailers. Thus, retailer choice has implications for key financial and macroeconomic outcomes, such as aggregate profitability and labor demand.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Private Placements of Equity and Firm Value: Value Enhancing or Value Destroying?
– Jun-Koo Kang, James L. Park
This paper reassesses two conflicting hypotheses on the valuation impacts of private placements of equity (PPEs), the monitoring/certification hypothesis and the managerial entrenchment hypothesis, by focusing on the shareholder approval, active buyer, and premium pricing features of PPEs. We find that PPEs with these features have significant positive announcement returns and insignificant mean long-run returns, while the corresponding announcement and long-run returns for PPEs without such features are significantly negative. Firms with value-enhancing PPE features are better governed and use proceeds more efficiently. Thus, the heterogeneous nature of PPEs helps reconcile the puzzling return patterns and conflicting hypotheses regarding PPEs.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Neglecting Peter to Fix Paul: How Shared Directors Transmit Bank Shocks to Nonfinancial Firms
– Leonid Pugachev, Andrea Schertler
We trace a corporate governance channel of bank shock transmission into the real economy. Using 1,245 U.S. bank enforcement actions (EAs) issued between 1990 and 2017, we show that when a nonfinancial firm (NFF) and bank share a common director, NFF stock prices fall around bank EAs. Severe EAs elicit more negative returns. During enforcement, valued directors substitute NFF board meeting attendance with bank board meeting attendance. Impaired credit relationships, director reputational damage, and endogenous director selection cannot fully explain our results. These findings imply that shared directors could transmit larger bank shocks into the real economy.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Informed Trading in the Stock Market and Option-Price Discovery
– Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Vyacheslav Fos, Dmitry Muravyev
When activist shareholders file Schedule 13D filings, the average stock-price volatility drops by approximately 10%. Prior to filing days, volatility information is reflected in option prices. Using a comprehensive sample of trades by Schedule 13D filers that reveals on what days and in what markets they trade, we show that on days when activists accumulate shares, option-implied volatility decreases, implied volatility skew increases, and implied volatility time slope increases. The evidence is consistent with a theoretical model where it is common knowledge that informed trading occurs only in the stock market and market makers update option prices based on stock-price and order-flow dynamics.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Institutional Debtholder Governance
– Aneel Keswani, Anh Tran, Paolo Volpin
Using data on the universe of U.S. based mutual funds, we find that two out of five fund families hold corporate bonds of firms in which they also own an equity stake. We show that the greater the fraction of debt a fund family holds in a given firm, the greater its propensity to vote in line with the interests of firm debt holders at shareholder meetings, even when against Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendation. Voting has direct policy consequences as firms that receive more votes in favor of creditors make corporate decisions more in line with the interests of debt holders.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Why Did the Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity Decline over Time?
– Zhen Wang, Chu Zhang
We propose an explanation for why corporate investment used to be sensitive to cash flow and why the sensitivity declined over time. The sensitivity stems from the informational role of cash flow in inferring the productivity of tangible capital in the old economy. Over time, however, more new-economy firms enter the market. These firms have reduced tangible capital productivity and reduced cash-flow predictability, which drives the decline in the average investment cash flow sensitivity. Theoretical and empirical analyses support this explanation.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Dynamic Compensation Under Uncertainty Shocks and Limited Commitment
– Felix Zhiyu Feng
This article studies dynamic compensation and risk management under cash-flow volatility shocks. The optimal contract depends critically on firms ability to make good on promised future payments to managers. When volatility is low, firms with full commitment ability implement high pay performance sensitivity to motivate effort from managers, and they impose large penalties on the arrival of volatility shocks to incentivize prudent risk management. In contrast, firms with limited commitment may allow excessive risk taking in exchange for low pay performance sensitivity. When volatility becomes high, firms with full commitment defer compensation more, whereas firms with limited commitment must expedite payments.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Liquidity Regulation and Financial Intermediaries
– Marco Macchiavelli, Luke Pettit
The liquidity-coverage ratio (LCR) requires banks to hold enough liquidity to withstand a 30-day run. We study the effects of the LCR on broker-dealers, the financial intermediaries at the epicenter of the 2007 2009 crisis. The LCR brings some financial- stability benefits, including a significant maturity extension of triparty repos backed by lower-quality collateral, as well as the accumulation of larger liquidity pools. However, it also leads to less liquidity transformation by broker-dealers. We also discuss the liquidity risks not addressed by the LCR. Finally, we show that a major source of fire- sale risk was self-corrected before the introduction of post-crisis regulations.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Stakeholder Orientation and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from State-Level Adoption of Constituency Statutes
– Huasheng Gao, Kai Li, Yujing Ma
We examine the causal effect of stakeholder orientation on firms cost of debt. Our test exploits the staggered state-level adoption of constituency statutes, which allows directors to consider stakeholders interests when making business decisions. We find a significant drop in loan spreads for firms incorporated in states that adopted such statutes relative to firms incorporated elsewhere. We further show that constituency statutes reduce the cost of debt through the channels of mitigating conflicts of interest between residual and fixed claimants and between holders of liquid claims and holders of illiquid claims, limiting legal liability and lowering takeover threats.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
FinTechs and the Market for Financial Analysis
– Jillian Grennan, Roni Michaely
Hundreds of equity market intelligence financial technology firms (FinTechs) have formed in the last decade. We assemble novel data to describe their capabilities, users, and consequences. Our data suggest that these FinTechs i) aggregate many data sources, including nontraditional ones (e.g., Twitter, blogs), and synthesize such data using artificial intelligence to make investment recommendations, and ii) change Internet users information discovery by serving as substitutes for traditional information providers. We evaluate some nontraditional data and find evidence suggesting that such data contain valuable information or crowd wisdom that links to informational efficiency. Overall, our findings are consistent with this innovation benefiting investors and markets.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns
– Thanh D. Huynh, Ying Xia
We examine whether climate change news risk is priced in corporate bonds. We estimate bond covariance with a climate change news index and find that bonds with a higher climate change news beta earn lower future returns, consistent with the asset pricing implications of demand for bonds with high potential to hedge against climate risk. Moreover, when investors are concerned about climate risk, they are willing to pay higher prices for bonds issued by firms with better environmental performance. Our findings suggest that corporate policies aimed at improving environmental performance pay off when the market is concerned about climate change risk.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Does Industry Timing Ability of Hedge Funds Predict Their Future Performance, Survival, and Fund Flows?
– Turan G. Bali, Stephen J. Brown, Mustafa O. Caglayan, Umut Celiker
This paper investigates hedge funds ability to time industry-specific returns and shows that funds timing ability in the manufacturing industry improves their future performance, probability of survival, and ability to attract more capital. The results indicate that the best industry-timing hedge funds in the manufacturing sector have the highest return exposure to earnings surprises. This, together with persistently sticky earnings surprises, transparent information environment in regards to earnings releases, and large post-earnings-announcement drift in the manufacturing industry, explain to a great extent why best-timing hedge funds can generate significantly larger future returns compared to worst-timing hedge funds.
August 2021
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Overconfident Institutions and Their Self-Attribution Bias: Evidence from Earnings Announcements
– Hsin-I Chou, Mingyi Li, Xiangkang Yin, Jing Zhao
Institutional demand for a stock before its earnings announcement is negatively related to subsequent returns. The relation is not attributable to the price pressure of institutional demand and is stronger for stocks with higher information asymmetry and/ or greater valuation difficulty. These findings support the notion that overconfident institutions misprice stocks. Following announcements, institutions behavior exhibits the outcome-dependent feature of self-attribution bias. Whether they become more overconfident and delay their mispricing correction depends on whether earnings news confirms their pre-announcement trades. This behavioral bias also offers a new explanation for the well-known post-earnings-announcement drift.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Does Financial Market Structure Affect the Cost of Raising Capital?
– James Brugler, Carole Comerton-Forde, Terrence Hendershott
We provide evidence on market structure and the cost of raising capital by examining changes in market structure in U.S. equity markets. Only the Order Handling Rules (OHR) of the Nasdaq, the one reform that reduced institutional trading costs, lowered the cost of raising capital. Using a difference-in-differences framework relative to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) that exploits the OHRs staggered implementation, we find that the OHR reduced the underpricing of seasoned equity offerings by 12 percentage points compared with a pre-OHR average of 3.6%. The effect is the largest in stocks with the largest reduction in institutional trading costs after the OHR.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Does Local Capital Supply Matter for Public Firms Capital Structures?
– Binay K. Adhikari, David C. Cicero, Johan Sulaeman
Publicly listed firms respond to capital supply conditions shaped by local investing preferences. Public firms headquartered in areas with higher proportions of senior citizens and women use more debt financing. These demographics are associated with conservative investing, leading to a higher and more stable local supply of debt capital. The demographics leverage relation is more pronounced for firms that cannot easily tap public bond markets, which is the majority of public firms. Changes in firms financing activities around exogenous shocks to credit supplies, including interstate banking deregulation and the 2008 2009 financial crisis, support the local capital supply hypothesis.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Dynamic Liquidity Management by Corporate Bond Mutual Funds
– Hao Jiang, Dan Li, Ashley Wang
How do corporate bond mutual funds manage liquidity to meet investor redemptions? We show that during tranquil market conditions, these funds tend to reduce liquid asset holdings to meet redemptions, temporarily increasing relative exposures to illiquid asset classes. When aggregate uncertainty rises, however, they tend to scale down their liquid and illiquid assets proportionally to preserve portfolio liquidity. This fund-level dynamic management of liquidity appears to affect the broad financial market: Redemptions from the corporate bond fund sector lead to more corporate bond selling during high-uncertainty periods, which generates price pressures and predicts strong return reversals.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Governance Changes through Shareholder Initiatives: The Case of Proxy Access
– Tara Bhandari, Peter Iliev, Jonathan Kalodimos
We study a regulatory change that led to over 300 shareholder proposals to instate proxy access and more than 250 firms adopting proxy access from 2012 to 2016. The firms expected to benefit most from proxy access have the most positive market reaction to receiving a proposal, but adoptions are not concentrated at these firms. We find that proposing and voting shareholders do not discriminate between firms that would or would not benefit and that management resists proxy access at the firms that stand to benefit most. This process results in the concentration of adoptions at large, already- well-governed firms.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Fiscal Deficits, Bank Credit Risk, and Loan-Loss Provisions
– Felipe Bastos Gurgel Silva
Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks aggregate credit risk, revealing governments ability to curb banks losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or with macroeconomic stabilization policies. Deteriorating deficits are associated with increasing financial distress of the banking sector and higher levels of loan-loss provisions. The effect is more pronounced for banks with a strong aversion to under provisioning and is robust to a battery of tests and to the identification of fiscal shocks using military-spending data. This association represents an additional source of negative co-movement between provisions and economic conditions, with implications for financial stability.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Global Liquidity Provision and Risk Sharing
– Feng Jiao, Sergei Sarkissian
We examine liquidity-related characteristics of U.S. firms with cross-listed shares in 20 foreign markets in the 19502013 period. We find that firms after foreign-market listing exhibit lower liquidity sensitivity and lower liquidity beta and suffer less from transitory price shocks. These results are stronger when firms are listed on multiple exchanges and in larger and more liquid markets. The liquidity enhancement is associated with firms increased foreign ownership post listing and is effective for firms with high levels of volatility, foreign income, and foreign trading and a high probability of informed trading. Our findings provide support for global markets providing liquidity and reducing liquidity risk to U.S. firms.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Common Analysts: Method for Defining Peer Firms
– Markku Kaustia, Ville Rantala
We develop a method for defining groups of peer firms on the basis of joint analyst coverage. Besides industry boundaries, analysts coverage choices reflect other aspects of firm relatedness such as business model. We find that the analyst-based method produces substantially more homogeneous groups of firms compared to common industry classifications, and has a number of other desirable properties. The paper has two broader implications. First, it demonstrates the advantages of a self-organizing approach to classification, as opposed to a hierarchical system. Second, it illustrates a new positive information production externality generated by the institution of security market analysis.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The Macroeconomic Uncertainty Premium in the Corporate Bond Market
– Turan G. Bali, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Quan Wen
We examine the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in the cross section of corporate bonds and find a significant uncertainty premium for both investment-grade (IG) (0.40% per month) and non-investment-grade (NIG) (0.81% per month) bonds. The economic- uncertainty premium declines as we progressively remove downgraded bonds, indicating that the premium represents an increase in required returns for bonds with higher credit and macroeconomic risk. The economic-uncertainty premia vary across equities and bonds in a manner consistent with the heterogeneous risk-aversion levels of dominant players in equities (retail investors) versus bonds (institutional investors).
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Risk-Neutral Skewness, Informed Trading, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
– Tarun Chordia, Tse-Chun Lin, Vincent Xiang
In this article, we use volatility surface data from options contracts to document a strong, robust, and positive cross-sectional relation between risk-neutral skewness (RNS) and subsequent stock returns. The differential return between high- and low-RNS stocks amounts to 0.17% per week. Pre-announcement RNS is positively related to earnings announcement returns, and the positive RNS return relation is more pronounced for other nonscheduled news releases. This suggests that it is informed trading that drives the positive relation between RNS and subsequent stock returns. We also find that RNS contains incremental information beyond trading signals captured by option-implied volatility and volume.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Do Social Connections Mitigate Hold-up and Facilitate Cooperation? Evidence from Supply Chain Relationships
– Sudipto Dasgupta, Kuo Zhang, Chenqi Zhu
We show that prior social connections can mitigate hold-up in bilateral relationships and encourage relation-specific investment and cooperation when contracts are incomplete. We examine vertical relationships and show that relation-specific innovative activities by suppliers increase with the existence and strength of prior social connections between the suppliers managers and board members and those of their customers. To establish causality, we exploit connection breaches due to manager/director retirements or deaths and find that innovation drops for affected suppliers after the departure of socially connected individuals relative to unaffected suppliers. Our work sheds light on how social connections can shape firm boundaries.
June 2021
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
How Does Forced-CEO-Turnover Experience Affect Directors?
– Jesse Ellis, Lixiong Guo, Shawn Mobbs
We study changes in independent director behavior and labor-market outcomes after the experience of a forced Chief Executive Officer (CEO) turnover. We find that independent directors are more willing to fire CEOs of underperforming firms, hire outside CEOs after a firing, and encourage better board-meeting attendance by fellow directors. We also find that the shareholders of poorly performing firms react positively when experienced directors join the board. It does come with a small cost for directors, in terms of additional directorships, although the cost is not as great as that for directors who do not fire the CEO of a poorly performing firm.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Board Reforms and Dividend Policy: International Evidence
– Kee-Hong Bae, Sadok El Ghoul, Omrane Guedhami, Xiaolan Zheng
We study the impact of board reforms implemented in 40 countries worldwide on corporate dividend policy. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that firms pay higher dividends following the reforms. The increase in dividend payouts is more pronounced for firms with weak board governance in the pre-reform period and those in countries with strong external governance mechanisms. Our findings corroborate the dividend outcome model, which postulates that board reforms strengthen the monitoring role of the board and empower outside shareholders to force management to disgorge dividends.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Can Restructuring Gains Be Sustained Without Ownership Changes? Evidence from Withdrawn Privatizations
– Gabriele Lattanzio, William L. Megginson
By employing a novel, hand-collected sample of withdrawn and completed share issue privatizations, we show that both groups undergo comparable restructuring processes over the 3 years preceding the event. We employ matching procedures to explicitly control for the restructuring effect, isolating the effect of the ownership transfer from state to private investors on corporate policies and performance. We document that, absent the ownership transfer, most of the gains realized during the restructuring process are reabsorbed over the posttreatment period. The transition from state to private ownership thus represents a necessary condition for the long-term success of privatization programs.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Dynamics of Arbitrage
– Louis H. Ederington, Chitru S. Fernando, Kateryna V. Holland, Thomas K. Lee, Scott C. Linn
We study the dynamics of cash-and-carry arbitrage using the U.S. crude oil market. Sizable arbitrage-related inventory movements occur at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract delivery point but not at other storage locations, where instead, operational factors explain most inventory changes. We add to the theory-of-storage literature by introducing two new features. First, due to arbitrageurs contracting ahead, inventories respond to not only contemporaneous but also lagged futures spreads. Second, storage-capacity limits can impede cash-and-carry arbitrage, leading to the persistence of unexploited arbitrage opportunities. Our findings suggest that arbitrage-induced inventory movements are, on average, price stabilizing.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Self-Control: Evidence from Unhealthy Choices
– Ivalina Kalcheva, Ping McLemore, Richard Sias
We hypothesize that greater economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to increases in unhealthy behaviors by lowering individuals impulse control. Based on 6.1 million interviews over 22 years, our analysis reveals a positive relation between EPU and the propensity to make poor lifestyle choices, including higher rates of alcohol consumption, a larger number of drinks consumed, and greater binge drinking. EPU has long-lasting effects on drinking behavior, consistent with habit formation. Moreover, the relation is stronger for younger individuals whose habits are more malleable. We find similar results when using smoking rates to measure unhealthy choices.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Granularity of Corporate Debt
– Jaewon Choi, Dirk Hackbarth, Josef Zechner
We study whether firms spread out debt-maturity dates, which we call granularity of corporate debt. In our model, firms that are unable to roll over expiring debt need to liquidate assets. If multiple small asset sales are less inefficient than a single large one, it can be optimal to diversify debt rollovers across time. Using a large sample of corporate bond issuers during the 1991 2012 period, we establish novel stylized facts and evidence consistent with our models predictions. There is substantial heterogeneity (i.e., firms have both concentrated and dispersed debt structures). Debt maturities are more dispersed for larger and more mature firms and for firms with better investment opportunities, higher leverage, and lower profitability. During the recent financial crisis, firms with valuable investment opportunities implemented more dispersed maturity structures. Finally, firms manage granularity actively and adjust toward target levels.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Funding Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Lockups
– Adam L. Aiken, Christopher P. Clifford, Jesse A. Ellis, Qiping Huang
We exploit the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new measure of funding liquidity risk that varies within funds. We find that hedge funds with lower funding risk generate higher returns, and this effect is driven by their increased exposure to equity-mispricing anomalies. Our results are robust to a variety of sampling criteria, variable definitions, and control variables. Further, we address endogeneity concerns in various ways, including a placebo approach and regression discontinuity design. Collectively, our results support a causal link between funding risk and the ability of managers to engage in risky arbitrage.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
The Impact of Stronger Shareholder Control on Bondholders
– Sadra Amiri-Moghadam, Siamak Javadi, Mahdi Rastad
We study the impact of stronger shareholder control on bondholders. We find that the passage of shareholder-sponsored governance proposals causes a decline in credit default swap spreads, indicating a net positive effect on bondholders. Evidence suggests that the direct benefit of stronger shareholder control, through the management disciplining channel, is larger than the combined adverse effects of directly escalating shareholder-bondholder conflict and indirectly exacerbating exposure to shareholder opportunism. Results are stronger for firms with existing high levels of shareholder- bondholder conflict and for proposals that mitigate managerial entrenchment without exacerbating risk-shifting. Finally, stronger shareholder control improves credit ratings and operating performance in the long-term.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Internal Labor Markets, Wage Convergence, and Investment
– Rui C. Silva
I document wage convergence in conglomerates using detailed plant-level data: Workers in low-wage industries collect higher-than-industry wages when the diversified firm also operates in high-wage industries. I confirm this effect by exploiting the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and changes in minimum wages at the state level as sources of exogenous increases in wages in some plants. I then track the evolution of wages of the remaining workers of the firm, relative to workers of unaffiliated plants. Plants where workers collect higher-than-industry wages operate with higher capital intensity, suggesting that internal labor markets may affect investment decisions in internal capital markets.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
Debtholder Monitoring Incentives and Bank Earnings Opacity
– Piotr Danisewicz, Danny McGowan, Enrico Onali, Klaus Schaeck
We exploit exogenous legislative changes that alter the priority structure of different classes of debt to study how debt-holder monitoring incentives affect bank earnings opacity. We present novel evidence that exposing non-depositors to greater losses in bankruptcy reduces earnings opacity, especially for banks with larger shares of non- deposit funding, listed banks, and independent banks. The reduction in earnings opacity is driven by a lower propensity to overstate earnings and is more pronounced among larger banks and in banks with more real estate loan exposure. Our findings highlight the importance of creditors monitoring incentives in improving the quality of information disclosure.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
When Are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run?
– Eric Jondeau, Qunzi Zhang, Xiaoneng Zhu
Pastor and Stambaugh (2012) find that from a forward-looking perspective, stocks are more volatile in the long run than they are in the short run. We demonstrate that when the nonnegative equity premium (NEP) condition is imposed on predictive regressions, stocks are in fact less volatile in the long run, even after taking estimation risk and uncertainties into account. The reason is that the NEP provides an additional parameter identification condition and prior information for future returns. Combined with the mean reversion of stock returns, this condition substantially reduces uncertainty on future returns and leads to lower long-run predictive variance.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis | Cambridge Core
How Does Acquisition Experience Affect Managerial Career Outcomes?
– Daniel Greene, Jared Smith
We use hand-collected data from acquisition press releases to investigate how acquisition experience affects the career outcomes of non-CEO senior managers. To address the non-random nature of gaining experience, we separately use manager and firm-year fixed effects, as well as an instrumental variable analysis. Acquisition experience is positively related to compensation, the likelihood of a future board seat, and the likelihood of promotion to chief executive officer. Further tests suggest that the effects of experience decay over time, have diminishing returns, and do not depend on deal quality. Finally, we search Securities and Exchange Commission filings to document novel information on managerial roles in mergers and acquisitions.